FROM: Jim Harris

Saturday, November 16, 2019

PHOTO FINISH...While we are still waiting for the dust to settle after what seems to have been an incredibly long election season, results are in and show Louisiana’s governor is Democratic incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards, who was elected with 51 percent of the vote over Republican Eddie Rispone, who picked up 49 percent of the vote in Saturday’s runoff.

Unofficial turnout shows 50.7 percent of the electorate voted Saturday, which is a respectable amount, especially for a runoff election in a non-presidential year. Turnout was up for African American voters, and Edwards was able to pull off enough of U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham’s north Louisiana vote from the primary to shore up a victory. It was earlier assumed most of that vote would go to Rispone.

Edwards’ victory, albeit by an uncomfortably narrow margin (a little more than 40,000 votes) can likely be chalked up to high early voting turnout (33 percent) and ramped-up get-out-the-vote efforts, which were increased significantly over the primary. According to pollster John Couvillion, who has been fairly well right on the money throughout these elections:

“

This is obviously a testament to his “get out the vote” effort which never took its eye off the ball from the

When early voting volume was substantially up compared to the

primary, the thought among some political observers was that the Democratic tilt of the early voters was a “front loading” of

that vote that would be reversed on Election Day.

The early vote

favored Governor John Bel Edwards. However, Governor Edwards also carried the Election Day vote by an even bigger

margin.

first day of early voting until Election Day

. Governor Edwards’

increasing the number of black voters while also getting enough of the vote that went to Ralph Abraham were his two keys to victory (in addition, of course, to support he already had from

less partisan Republican voters residing in the urban areas.)

The week of early voting for the runoff showed the highest early voter turnout ever in the state for a non-presidential election. That turnout was also 31 percent higher than early voting for the primary in October. Forty percent of early voters were African American. Blacks represent 31 percent of registered voters. Republican voter turnout in this period decreased by 3 percent.

Rispone was expected to benefit more than he did from three appearances in the state by President Trump. In the weeks leading up to the election, the President came in to stump for Rispone in Bossier City, Monroe and Lake Charles. Edwards’ “trumping” of Rispone in Saturday’s election is being written about nationally as a “black eye” for the President, but the overall effect is yet to be seen.

DIRTY POOL...You can’t talk about this election without talking about the millions upon millions of dollars that flooded into the state from third party sources from both political parties, including massive amounts of trial lawyer money. This election had national repercussions; as part of that, the rhetoric on both sides sunk to a new low, as evidenced by ugly direct mail pieces and television advertising.

SUPREME COURT...In a race to determine the balance of the state’s high court in the replacement of District 1 Justice Greg Guidry, who was appointed to the federal bench, 1st Circuit Court of Appeal Judge Will Crain bested 5th Circuit Court of Appeal Judge Hans Liljeberg by a margin of 57 to 43 percent. Crain had the backing of the business community, and Liljeberg was supported by the trial bar. The balance of the court is more important now than ever, given the

”

proliferation of lawsuits against coastal parishes and other oil and gas issues, including legacy lawsuits.

SECRETARY OF STATE...Incumbent Republican Kyle Ardoin, who was elected in a special election last year, was elected to his first full term over Democratic challenger Gwen Collins-Greenup. He took 59 percent of the vote.

LEGISLATURE...Five Senate seats and 25 House races were decided in the runoff. The rest of the Legislature (34 Senate seats and 80 House seats) was elected either without opposition or in the October primary. This election represented the highest turnover in the Legislature since 2007, when term limits took place. Thirty-two percent of the Legislature was ineligible to seek reelection.

Republicans were unable to pick up enough seats in both chambers to constitute an overall supermajority. The Senate Republicans already had supermajority status going into the runoff, with 26 seats secure. The party had 63 secure seats in the House and needed to pick up seven to get to the magic number of 70, but were only able to switch two seats. Republicans still have a majority in the House, but will need to pull some Democratic or Independent votes for an override of a gubernatorial veto or on certain budget votes.

Senate Races Decided in Runoffs

SD 3 (Sen. J.P. Morrell, D-New Orleans) term-limited

• ·  Rep. John Bagneris, D-New Orleans: 40 percent

• ·  Rep. Joe Bouie, D-New Orleans: 60 percent

  SD 11 (Sen. Jack Donahue, R-Slidell) term-limited

• ·  Rep. Reid Falconer, R-Madisonville: 44 percent

• ·  Patrick McMath, R-Covington: 56 percent

SD 16 (Sen. Dan Claitor, R-Baton Rouge) term-limited

• ·  Beverly Brooks Thompson, D-Baton Rouge: 42 percent

• ·  Rep. Franklin Foil, R-Baton Rouge: 58 percent

  SD 35 (Sen. Jim Fannin)

• ·  Incumbent Sen. Jim Fannin, R-Jonesboro: 50 percent

• ·  Rep. Jay Morris, R-Monroe: 50 percent (won by 273 votes) SD 36 (Sen. Ryan Gatti)

• ·  Incumbent Sen. Ryan Gatti, R-Bossier City: 44 percent

• ·  Robert Mills, R-Benton: 56 percent
  Two non-term-limited senators were unseated; the party affiliations

  remained the same.

  House Races Decided in Runoffs
  HD 3 (Rep. Barbara Norton, D-Shreveport) term-limited

• ·  Tammy Phelps, D-Shreveport: 51 percent

• ·  Daryl Joy Walters, D-Shreveport: 49 percent

  HD 15 (Rep. Frank Hoffman, R-West Monroe) term-limited

• ·  Foy Gadberry, R-Calhoun: 53 percent

• ·  Justin Tidwell, R-West Monroe: 47 percent

HD 20 (Rep. Steve Pylant, R-Winnsboro) term-limited

• ·  Kevin Bates, R-Winnsboro: 49 percent

• ·  Sen. Neil Riser, R-Columbia: 51 percent

  HD 21 (Rep. Andy Anders, D-Clayton) term-limited

• ·  C. Travis Johnson, D-Ferriday: 59 percent

• ·  Glen McGlothin, I-Jonesville: 41 percent

  HD 30 (Rep. James Armes, D-Leesville) term-limited

• ·  Chuck Dowden Jr., R-Leesville: 47 percent

• ·  Chuck Owen, R-Leesville: 53 percent

  HD 31 (Rep. Nancy Landry, R-Lafayette) term-limited

• ·  Jonathan Goudau, R-Lafayette: 54 percent

• ·  Gus Rantz, R-Lafayette: 46 percent

  HD 34 (Rep. A.B. Franklin, D-Lake Charles) term-limited

• ·  Wilford Carter Sr., D-Lake Charles: 57 percent

• ·  Kevin Guidry, D-Lake Charles: 43 percent

  HD 37 (Rep. Johnny Guinn, R-Jennings) term-limited

• ·  Shalon Latour, R-Iowa: 44 percent

• ·  Troy Romero, R-Iowa: 56 percent

  HD 46 (Rep. Mike Huval, R-Breaux Bridge)

· Keith Baudin, R-St. Martinville: 49 percent

· Incumbent Rep. Mike Pete Huval, R-Breaux Bridge: 51 percent

HD 48 (Rep. Taylor Barras, R-New Iberia) term-limited

• ·  Beau Beaullieu, R-New Iberia: 57 percent

• ·  Ricky Gonsoulin, R-New Iberia: 43 percent

  HD 50 (Rep. Sam Jones, D-Franklin) term-limited

• ·  Raymond Harris Jr., No Party-Franklin: 42 percent

• ·  Vincent J. St. Blanc III, R-Franklin: 58 percent

  HD 62 (Rep. Roy Daryl Adams)

• ·  Incumbent Rep. Roy Daryl Adams, I-Jackson: 54 percent

• ·  Johnny Arceneaux, R-St. Francisville: 46 percent

  HD 67 (Rep. Pat Smith, D-Baton Rouge) term-limited

• ·  Leah Cullins, D-Baton Rouge: 46 percent

• ·  Larry Selders, D-Baton Rouge: 54 percent

  HD 68 (Rep. Steve Carter, R-Baton Rouge) term-limited

· Taryn C. Branson, D-Baton Rouge: 42 percent

· Scott McKnight, R-Baton Rouge: 58 percent

HD 70 (Rep. Franklin Foil, R-Baton Rouge) term-limited

• ·  Belinda Davis, D-Baton Rouge: 48 percent

• ·  Barbara Reich Freiberg, R-Baton Rouge: 52 percent

  HD 71 (Rep. Rogers Pope, R-Livingston) term-limited

• ·  Lori Callais, D-Denham Springs: 23 percent

• ·  Buddy Mincey Jr., R-Denham Springs: 77 percent

  HD 88 (Rep. Johnny Berthelot, R-Gonzales) term-limited

• ·  Kathy Edmonston, R-Gonzales: 51 percent

• ·  Brandon Trosclair, R-Gonzales: 49 percent

  HD 89 (Rep. Reid Falconer, R-Mandeville)

• ·  Vince Liuzza, R-Mandeville: 47 percent

• ·  Richard Nelson, R-Mandeville: 53 percent

  HD 91 (Rep. Walt Leger, D-New Orleans) term-limited

· Mandie Landry, D-New Orleans: 53 percent

· Robert McKnight, D-New Orleans: 47 percent

HD 94 (Rep. Stephanie Hilferty)

· Incumbent Rep. Stephanie Hilferty, R-New Orleans: 59 percent

· Tammy Savoie, D-New Orleans: 41 percent

HD 97 (Rep. Joe Bouie, D-New Orleans)

• ·  Eugene Green, D-New Orleans: 49 percent

• ·  Matthew Willard, D-New Orleans: 51 percent

  HD 98 (Rep. Neil Abramson, D-New Orleans) term-limited

• ·  Aimee Adatto Freeman, D-New Orleans: 57 percent

• ·  Kea Sherman, D-New Orleans: 43 percent

  HD 99 (Rep. Jimmy Harris, D-New Orleans)

• ·  Adonis Exposé, D-New Orleans: 46 percent

• ·  Candace Newell, D-New Orleans: 54 percent

  HD 105 (Rep. Chris Leopold)

• ·  Mack Cormier, D-Belle Chasse: 52 percent

• ·  Incumbent Rep. Chris Leopold, R-Belle Chasse: 48 percent

  Only one non-term-limited representative was unseated; the seat changed from Republican to Democratic.

  Twelve state senators were elected in October without opposition; nine were incumbents, and three were House members running for the opposite chamber:

• ·  Sen. Sharon Hewitt, R-Slidell

• ·  Rep. Jimmy Harris, D-New Orleans (replacing Sen. Wesley Bishop, D-

  New Orleans)

• ·  Sen. Troy Carter, D-New Orleans

• ·  Rep. Pat Connick, R-Harvey (replacing Senate President John Alario,

  R-Westwego)

• ·  Sen. Rick Ward, R-Port Allen

• ·  Sen. Eddie Lambert, R-Gonzales

• ·  Sen. Gary Smith, D-Montz

• ·  Sen. Bret Allain, R-Franklin

• ·  Sen. Fred Mills, R-St. Martinville

• ·  Sen. Page Cortez, R-Lafayette

• ·  Sen. Ronnie Johns, R-Sulphur

• ·  Rep. Katrina Jackson, D-Monroe (replacing Sen. Francis Thompson,

  D-Delhi)

  Thirty-seven state representatives were elected in October without opposition; 34 are incumbents, one was a senator running for the opposite chamber, and two are new members:

• ·  Rep. Sam Jenkins, D-Shreveport

• ·  Rep. Cedric Glover, D-Shreveport

• ·  Thomas Pressly, R-Shreveport (replacing Rep. Thomas Carmody, R-Shreveport)

• ·  Rep. Larry Bagley, R-Logansport

• ·  Rep. Raymond Crews, R-Bossier City

• ·  Rep. Dodie Horton, R-Haughton

• ·  Rep. Patrick Jefferson, D-Homer

• ·  Rep. Chris Turner, R-Ruston

• ·  Rep. Jack McFarland, R-Winnfield

• ·  Michael Echols, R-Monroe (replacing Rep. Jay Morris, R- Monroe)

• ·  Rep. Pat Moore, D-Monroe

• ·  Sen. Francis Thompson, D-Delhi (replacing Rep. Bubba Chaney, R-Rayville)

• ·  Rep. Kenny Cox, D-Mansfield

• ·  Rep. Lance Harris, R-Alexandria

• ·  Rep. Mike Johnson, R-Pineville

• ·  Rep. Edmond Jordan, D-Brusly

• ·  Rep. Phillip DeVillier, R-Eunice

• ·  Rep. John Stefanski, R-Crowley

• ·  Rep. Vincent Pierre, D-Lafayette

• ·  Rep. Ryan Bourriaque, R-Grand Chenier

• ·  Rep. Blake Miguez, R-New Iberia

• ·  Rep. Zee Zeringue, R-Houma

• ·  Rep. Tanner Magee, R-Houma

• ·  Rep. Greg Miller, R-Destrehan

• ·  Rep. Tony Bacala, R-Prairieville

• ·  Rep. Chad Brown, D-Plaquemine

• ·  Rep. Valarie Hodges, R-Denham Springs

• ·  Rep. Barry Ivey, R-Baton Rouge

• ·  Rep. Clay Schexnayder, R-Sorrento

• ·  Rep. Joe Marino, No Party-Gretna

• ·  Rep. Nick Muscarello, R-Hammond

• ·  Rep. Joe Stagni, R-Kenner

• ·  Rep. Royce Duplessis, D-New Orleans

• ·  Rep. Ted James, D-Baton Rouge

• ·  Rep. Gary Carter, D-New Orleans

• ·  Rep. Ray Garofalo, R-Meraux

• ·  Rep. Paul Hollis, R-Mandeville